Iraqis headed to the polls today to vote in national parliamentary elections that will decide who sits on the Council of Representatives for the next four-year term. The complicated process of new government formation and presidential selection will then unfold over the coming months.

There is clearly much at stake domestically and regionally. The degree to which Kurdish Regional Government representatives will be included or marginalized in the new government will be closely watched by oil market participants.

Relations between Erbil and Baghdad can be characterized as contentious at best, with agreement on a national oil law that settles revenue sharing, oil export protocol and a maze of associated factors hanging in the balance. The KRG does not appear optimistic based on recent comments:

“For us [our relationship with Baghdad] is over, we must find a new way forward after the elections,” Minister Falah Mustafa, head of KRG’s Department of Foreign Relations is quoted as saying in an editorial posted on Al Jazeera’s website