Last week we published a piece on what are likely to be Congress’ top 6 energy policy priorities after the August recess, according to Frank Maisano, Senior Principal at law firm Bracewell Giuliani. Elias Hinckley, also a Washington, DC-based attorney specializing in energy, has offered a slightly different take on what we might see in energy policy this fall.

Executive Action:

Expect more executive action. I am hearing, and fielding, lots of questions around DC about how the Administration can accelerate the cause for renewables and EVs without Congressional action (because no one expects much from Congress). Agency mandates, small changes to rules, and attempts to more broadly read mandates for previous legislation are all on the table. It is not clear how much can be done, but there are a few interesting ideas beginning to develop that could have a material impact – particularly on distributed generation, like solar.

This also feeds into the executive action that will continue to be pressed on climate more broadly. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz’s speech at Senator Harry Reid’s (D-NV) Clean Energy Summit last week said that one of his primary objectives was to implement the president’s climate agenda.

For more on President Obama’s climate agenda, see President Obama’s Climate Change Plan: Industry and Environmentalists React.

Carbon Tax:

I think this picks up more real conversation than people are expecting. A growing part of the GOP knows the party has to figure out some kind of climate story, as the raw denial-ism is starting to look way out of touch. One of the American Prosperity public relations guys just jumped onto [former Congressman Bob] Inglis’s Energy and Enterprise Initiative platform (which is very much about a carbon tax) so we may be seeing start of real shift in GOP approach.

The other piece of this is that the White House has some actual leverage with Clean Air Act expansion – this might be too much like conceding a point, but fast compromise would be the best outcome for the coal industry. With all that said, this is only about a shift in rhetoric, as everything I am hearing is that there is no movement on broader tax reform, which is necessary to make any kind of carbon tax discussion real.

EPA Regulations:

I don’t see rules coming out any time soon. If this is really a War on Coal, the White House should be quietly slowing down EPA on rules. Uncertainty = financing death (Hinckley expands on this issue here). There’s a wish list of changes to help coal, and coal ash action is still possible, but I think it all gets wrapped into this broader debate over what are we doing on coal.

Bipartisan Cooperation:

I do actually think there is some hope for bipartisan co-operation on energy. Shaheen-Portman [The Energy Savings and Industrial Competitiveness Act of 2011] looks like it could actually happen, though an avalanche of amendments could slow things, and behind that there’s some traction on government efficiency. Some of the early efforts out of the No Labels group could pick up speed.

Energy efficiency, especially low hanging/cheap EE is tough to argue against.  Chris Miller, Harry Reid’s former top energy aide, also pointed to the potential for bipartisan movement on the idea of putting proceeds from revenues off energy and resources on federal lands into energy research and development and energy conservation, with several companions available — the administration’s trust fund proposal, the Murkowski bill, Tester/Reid, etc.

Keystone XL:

Keystone will, of course, be a front line issue. My prediction in January was after lots of airing out it would get approved late this summer, but I am much less certain of that now. At a minimum I think the time line gets stretched out. It’s a flash point, and I wonder a little if both hard pro-fossil and climate action camps aren’t a little happy to have it as a lightning-rod issue. It attracts attention, which is valuable.

President Obama’s nominee for FERC Chairman:

I have heard the noise about blocking [Ron] Binz, but a dozen former FERC commissioners (including Republicans) have come out in support of Binz as wise/good choice at FERC. There are plenty of special interests with an axe to grind, but I don’t see resistance gaining traction. It’s certainly not about votes, so there’s reason to doubt the staying power of resistance.

Offshore Drilling:

I think most people are still wondering where the meaningful response to Deepwater Horizon is, so don’t expect big changes from recent safety issues.

Elias Hinckley is a strategic advisor on energy finance and energy policy to investors, energy companies and governments. He is an energy and tax partner with the law firm Sullivan and Worcester where he helps his clients solve the challenges of a changing energy landscape by using his understanding of energy policy, regulation, and markets to quickly and creatively assemble successful energy deals.