The IRGC has fired a literal shot across the KRG’s bow, but the brazen violation of Baghdad’s sovereignty may ultimately benefit Tehran’s opponents. A few minutes after the start of a leadership meeting on September 8, the headquarters of the Kurdistan Democratic Party-Iran (KDP-I) came under missile attack. The next day, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards… Keep reading →
Despite the appointment of a radical anti-American commander, Iran’s naval forces are unlikely to resume frequent provocations without a strategic shift at the very top of the regime. On August 23, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei promoted the acting commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN), Alireza Tangsiri, to full commander, replacing Ali Fadavi,… Keep reading →
The current Iranian narrative—that economic problems stem from domestic mistakes rather than foreign pressure—complicates the U.S. policy of using sanctions to force change. On August 28, President Hassan Rouhani answered questions before the Majlis about Iran’s economic problems, only the second time in the Islamic Republic’s history that a president has come before the parliament.… Keep reading →
Hardliners have been exploiting the recurrent unrest as an excuse to lambaste the government’s economic track record, interfere with its prerogatives in various sectors, and double down on the Supreme Leader’s ‘resistance’ strategy. In his first public reaction to Iran’s recent protests and mounting economic crisis, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attempted to deflect public anger… Keep reading →
As the regime’s strategy for countering the Trump administration continues to falter, will its traditional two-step of provocation and restraint give way to wider escalation? On May 23, in his Ramadan “Tom and Jerry” speech, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made a list of demands on Europe to keep Iran in the nuclear deal. Two months later,… Keep reading →
The regime’s most vulnerable point is its precarious banking system, whose persistent mismanagement, capital shortfalls, and lack of transparency have already sparked public protests. This PolicyWatch is the first in a two-part series on renewing U.S. sanctions. Read Part 2, which discusses the specific types of old and new sanctions Washington has at its disposal. As… Keep reading →
As Washington mulls sanctions on Asaib Ahl al-Haq and similar groups, it should mind the volatility of Baghdad’s near-term political situation and the questionable efficacy of ‘wing’ distinctions. Among the winners in Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections was Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), the fastest-rising faction in a powerful coalition of Iranian-allied Iraqi parties. In the… Keep reading →
Khamenei’s Ramadan speech combined explicit attacks on the United States, implicit criticism of Rouhani’s approach, and excessive demands on Europe, seemingly bracing the regime for one of the toughest challenges of his thirty-year rule. Every Ramadan, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei uses the occasion of a post-fast iftar dinner to deliver a message to the Iranian people and… Keep reading →
The Supreme Leader used his Nowruz address to launch a strong attack on the United States and make Rouhani the scapegoat for continued American pressure, which augurs poorly for U.S.-Iranian cooperation. In his twenty-sixth Nowruz speech in Mashhad, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated his radical anti-American position and implicitly criticized Iran’s nuclear negotiating team for violating… Keep reading →
As in past elections, the Guardian Council seems poised to disqualify thousands of registered Majlis candidates, and its procedures for doing so are revealing. On February 26, Iran will hold elections for parliament (also known as the Majlis or Islamic Consultative Assembly) and the Assembly of Experts. Initial reports indicate that thousands of candidates have… Keep reading →
