US natural gas prices fell sharply in 2008, from more than $10 per thousand cubic feet in July to less than $6/mcf at year-end, and have since fallen much further. The average US natural gas wellhead price fell from $7.97/mcf in 2008 to $3.67/mcf the following year, and to just $2.66/mcf in 2012, after an uptick to just under $4.50/mcf in 2010, according to the Energy Information Administration.

But cold weather so far this autumn may provide the push natural gas prices need to start climbing from Thursday’s $4.41/MMBtu – which is roughly equivalent to $4.40/mcf – back towards the $5-$7-ish range of the mid-2000’s. According to the Wall Street Journal:

“Investors say gas could keep climbing for as long as the cold spell lasts—potentially through December, according to some forecasters. Supplies are down from a year ago, while demand is rising as power plants switch from coal to gas.

“‘There’s a lot of people that are getting bullish at these levels,’ said Jason Williams, a commodity broker for Coquest, a brokerage in Dallas. ‘People are worried about supply.’ He said he thinks prices can rise another 10% by the end of the year.”

A 10% increase over $4.41 would not get natural gas quite back up to the $5 level, but for gas producers, the price move would be a big step in a welcome direction.