What’s more likely: that man-made climate change is not happening, or that Elvis is still alive?

The first installment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change‘s newest comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change is due out this Friday. “This will be the most authoritative consensus on the science of climate change to day,” said Mark Kenber, chief executive of The Climate Group at the opening ceremony of Climate Week NYC on Monday.

Kenber and former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, who also spoke at the event, seized on the expectation that the report will indicate that it is 95% certain that man-made climate change is underway.

Climate Group Chief Executive Mark Kenber: 95% is Pretty Certain

“If you were told there was a 95% chance you would have a heart attack, you wouldn’t ignore it, you wouldn’t debate the risks, you’d do something about it.”

Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair: “Elvis is Alive!” Says Almost No One

“95% certain is a pretty large degree of certainty. I recall from memory that the number of people who think that Elvis is still alive is around about 5%.”