With the nine-month extension of the OPEC led production cuts the consensus among traders is that oil will likely stay between $50-$60 a barrel this year. But beyond that there a number of different viewpoints as to where prices will go. Some parties feel the medium term future for oil has already been written by the lack of investments made upstream and within a few years the price of oil may nearly double.

Most prominent among those forecasters calling for dramatically higher prices is the International Energy Agency (IEA). The organization points out that in 2016 new discoveries of oil supplies were at the lowest point in seven decades. The IEA is beating the drum for oil companies to increase spending on finding new sources of oil and predicting chaos in the markets within a few years time if this does not happen.

The depletion of current sources is being made up for by projects which were put in place prior to oil prices dropping dramatically a few years ago. Once these new projects are running there is nothing in line to take their place and if global demand continues to grow the effect on oil prices will be dramatic.

Several prominent analysts in this camp have said loudly and publicly that the groundwork has been laid for a super bull if energy companies don’t act immediately. As Faith Birol, the IEA’s executive director said at the beginning of this year, “there is no money for exploration. You find something if you look for it,” Mr Birol said the years of 2015-2016 had seen an unheard of decline in investment and if that didn’t change in 2017 the consequences a few years down the road would be severe.

While there have been significant discoveries in the United States this year it remains to be seen whether or not this alone will be enough to offset this trend especially if demand rises more sharply than expected.