The media attention given to electric vehicles as of late may lead one to believe in a future in which carbon emissions are gone, and crude oil consumption is a thing of the past. The media attention, however, may be disproportionate to reality. The fact is, it is unlikely that electric cars will have a measurable effect on gas consumption in the United States in the near future.
There are three types of “electric vehicle.” Conventional hybrids, HEVs, run on an electric motor combined with another type of engine, usually gas powered. They can get anywhere from 20 to 50 mpg. Pure electrics, known as BEVs, run on an electric motor alone – no oil in consumed from use. Of course, oil is used in the manufacturing process and indirectly to generate the electricity used to charge. Estimates of this indirect oil usage clock in at around 40% that of gas powered vehicles, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. Usually, these vehicles can put up numbers of 100 mpg. Then there are plug-in hybrids, which can be charged from an external source. These vehicles can run on battery alone for short distances. In pure electric mode, they can reach up to 100 mpg. In hybrid mode, they reach about 30 mpg. This type of EV is not extensively available in the United States.
In total, U.S. sales of all three types of EV made up about 3% of total vehicle sales. Estimates say that by 2026, EV will make up 10% of worldwide auto sales, according to Bloomberg. Significant sales growth and output volume must be accomplished before any meaningful impact happens. That tipping point, also according to Bloomberg, may be reached within the next 10 years. Factors include the rate at which carbon based vehicles are retired, in addition to carbon-vehicle growth projections.
Half of the U.S. daily oil consumption is in the form of motor gasoline. Electric cars, however, do produce carbon emissions – emissions reductions are less than the reduction in total oil consumption. The difference, of course, depends upon the type of EV being used, and the percentage of fossil fuels used to charge the vehicle. If we are to assume a fleet of conventional hybrids, HEVs, then we could expect about half of the emissions that would normally be produced by carbon vehicles. Approximations show that reduction in carbon dioxide from EVs would be 4%, while overall CO2 reduction in the U.S. would be 2%. These are important developments, however, the results are less than many had forecast.
Electric car emissions will become less problematic as a larger share of grid electricity is generated from renewable resources. However, until such a time, we must face the fact that electric cars will be a substantial source of pollution. Even if you take the most optimistic assumptions of growth in the electric vehicle sales projections, no significant impact of CO2 emissions are yielded within the next 10 years.
The real reward will come in later years, when many assume electric vehicles will completely penetrate the automobile market. The scalability at that point will allow changes to be affected. Those who believe that an immediate reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is critical for the health of the environment may have to turn elsewhere for solutions.
As it stands, electric cars do not account for a significant portion of U.S. gas consumption. Population growth, economic growth, suburban growth, and low oil prices have led consumption of gas to actually increase. What is of concern now is how policy makers will decide to reverse this trend, and if doing so has unintended consequences.
