The main reason carbon emissions are unlikely to decrease in the short term? Coal. Leave it to Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow Robert Bryce to rain on the renewable energy parade. It’s not that he is anti-renewable energy, or even pro coal, but his analysis starkly demonstrates current energy fundamentals and projected trends, which are heavily dominated by what he refers to as the “black fuel” in a report released today.

In “NOT BEYOND COAL – How the Global Thirst for Low-Cost Electricity Continues Driving Coal Demand,” Bryce examines 9 countries collectively about to build roughly 550 gigawatts of new coal-fired capacity over the next two and a half decades. Until a fuel source is discovered or invented that can outcompete on cost, scale, and reliability, coal will dominate the global power generation business, Bryce says.

A carbon price or binding international climate agreement are the two leading mechanisms that could slow coal consumption growth, but Bryce finds those outcomes unlikely given the “coal industry’s recent history and the ongoing surge in global coal use.”

“Given coal’s pivotal role in providing electricity to poor and wealthy countries alike, it is highly unlikely that global carbon-dioxide emissions will fall anytime soon.” – Robert Bryce, NOT BEYOND COAL – How the Global Thirst for Low-Cost Electricity Continues Driving Coal Demand

The role coal plays in alleviating energy poverty is a focal point of the analysis and a particularly contentious issue in the overall coal/climate debate. Constructing new coal-fired power plants is one of the fastest and least expensive ways to electrify large population areas. Although some argue distributed generation sources are a better fit for widespread rural populations. Time will tell which power generation source wins the day in the developing world, but price is sure to be a motivating factor, and coal maintains a cost advantage among most competing power sources, which is one of Bryce’s main points.

He argues in favor or using coal more efficiently and against the EPA’s “Clean Power Plan,” which seeks to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions from the US power generation sector. Sure to anger many climate-change activists, Bryce offers four reasons why the “Clean Power Plan” should be blocked or repealed.

The report paints a pretty bleak climate change mitigation picture, but for those who follow the energy and environment discussion, it’s worth reading.