The price of US oil has dropped nearly 25% since hitting its highs this spring, yet gasoline is down just 10%. So a big drop should be coming, right?

Sorta. Drivers can expect a bit of relief at the pump over the next few months, but they shouldn’t look for too big a discount.

Many Americans have become conditioned to expect a sharp drop in gasoline prices in the fall as Labor Day, the traditional end to the summer driving season, approaches and as the nation shifts to less expensive “winter gas.” Because cooler air is less conducive to smog formation, “winter gas” doesn’t need to be refined as much.

Also adding downward pressure to prices: Hurricane Irene wasn’t as bad as feared, the hostilities in Libya appear to be winding down, the dollar is gaining, and the economy is stuck in the doldrums.

On Tuesday, oil was trading at about $87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

But analysts are urging caution.