natgas storage feb15

With all eyes focused on falling oil prices for the past several months, the US natural gas market has often been overlooked. Not that it has done much from a price movement perspective in the past couple of years.

Another cold blast of Arctic weather is headed for the Midwest and Northeast over the next week – and while that is providing some near-term price support – the longer-term outlook remains bearish, according to brokerage Sterne Agee.

The analysts expect natural gas price pain to persist into 2016:

“Natural gas in storage should continue trending above historical averages into spring, amid record-high production from Appalachia. Supply growth is dampening Henry Hub prices and dislocating Appalachian spot pricing, which we expect to continue YTD weakness through this summer. Expect spot prices of <$1.50/mcf to be the norm in many Appalachian hubs this summer, and expect operators without takeaway solutions to consider shut-ins as local pricing struggles to exceed transportation costs to move gas to local pricing hubs.” – Sterne Agee research note, February 11, 2015