The IRGC has fired a literal shot across the KRG’s bow, but the brazen violation of Baghdad’s sovereignty may ultimately benefit Tehran’s opponents. A few minutes after the start of a leadership meeting on September 8, the headquarters of the Kurdistan Democratic Party-Iran (KDP-I) came under missile attack. The next day, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards… Keep reading →
Despite the appointment of a radical anti-American commander, Iran’s naval forces are unlikely to resume frequent provocations without a strategic shift at the very top of the regime. On August 23, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei promoted the acting commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN), Alireza Tangsiri, to full commander, replacing Ali Fadavi,… Keep reading →
Hardliners have been exploiting the recurrent unrest as an excuse to lambaste the government’s economic track record, interfere with its prerogatives in various sectors, and double down on the Supreme Leader’s ‘resistance’ strategy. In his first public reaction to Iran’s recent protests and mounting economic crisis, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attempted to deflect public anger… Keep reading →
As the regime’s strategy for countering the Trump administration continues to falter, will its traditional two-step of provocation and restraint give way to wider escalation? On May 23, in his Ramadan “Tom and Jerry” speech, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made a list of demands on Europe to keep Iran in the nuclear deal. Two months later,… Keep reading →
Tehran has generally responded to pressure by issuing threats, ramping up its nuclear activities, accepting temporary limits, and, when the heat is turned up, launching cyber, military, and terrorist operations. This PolicyWatch is the first in a two-part series on shaping Iran’s potential responses to increased U.S. pressure on its nuclear activities. Read Part 2, which… Keep reading →
As Washington mulls sanctions on Asaib Ahl al-Haq and similar groups, it should mind the volatility of Baghdad’s near-term political situation and the questionable efficacy of ‘wing’ distinctions. Among the winners in Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections was Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), the fastest-rising faction in a powerful coalition of Iranian-allied Iraqi parties. In the… Keep reading →
Khamenei’s Ramadan speech combined explicit attacks on the United States, implicit criticism of Rouhani’s approach, and excessive demands on Europe, seemingly bracing the regime for one of the toughest challenges of his thirty-year rule. Every Ramadan, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei uses the occasion of a post-fast iftar dinner to deliver a message to the Iranian people and… Keep reading →
Now that the nuclear deal is off, Iran’s next steps will be shaped at least in part by the technical capabilities of its enrichment program and related efforts. Amid President Trump’s announced withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran has threatened to expand its nuclear program beyond the restraints mandated in that agreement.… Keep reading →
Two former policymakers discuss whether the longtime allies can move beyond tactical responses to their strategic challenges in the region. On April 18, Chuck Freilich and James Jeffrey addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Freilich is a senior fellow in the Belfer Center’s International Security Program and a former Israeli deputy national security… Keep reading →
On 12 May 2018, US President Trump will decide whether or not to renew the US sanctions relief in relation to Iran.
