The agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC countries around the world to limit supplies has been called into review by a joint committee of ministers from the oil producers.

Prior statements from these countries has hinted at the possibility of an extension, always citing the high levels of conformity between the members of the pact. Previously, a six-month extension of the agreement has been suggested.

The final version, however, simply stated that the OPEC Secretariat will review the conditions of the market in April and make a decision concerning the supply limits then. This could drag on the price of crude oil according to industry analysts.

Some strategists have suggested that lack of insight concerning the production cutbacks will likely disappoint money managers – the supply constraints have supported higher oil prices since December, and managers will sell their oil positions in anticipation of supply increases, which will lower prices. However, the anxiety of these money managers could put downward pressure on prices in and of itself.

It is not clear why the recommendation to continue the agreement has been omitted. Some believe the cause lies in lack of legal precedent to continue the cutbacks. OPEC and 11 other producing nations (including Russia) agreed to cut oil supply by 1.8 million barrels per day back in December. The terms of the agreement lasted 6 months, with the option to extend another 6 months if successful.

The Oil Minister of Kuwait, Essam al-Marqouq, has stated that any participant in the agreement has the option to voice their concerns, either in support or disapproval of continuation. Russia, for example, is unclear concerning the future of the deal. He continued by stating that full conformity with all members is required to extend, adding that he hopes a decision will be made by the end of April.

However, the statement from the committee of ministers strongly encouraged members to strive for 100% conformity.

The initial pact was forged in an attempt to steer market prices upward – since then, crude has risen to above $50 a barrel. The price increase, however, has incentivized United States shale producers to increase output, as they are more profitable at these higher price points.

Recently, crude oil stock piles have increased. The statement by the committee included that the ministers took note of factors leading to these higher volume stocks, including low seasonal demand, refinery maintenance, and rising non-OPEC supply. These factors have not detracted from the optimism of the committee, however, which still believes price stability is possible.

Analysts have voiced concerns that this statement makes it harder to determine which players in the OPEC pact are controlling what. This creates uncertainty in the market, which in turn creates volatile prices. The concerns lead analysts to believe that markets will react negatively.

Before the committee met, Iraqi Oil Minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi stated that he saw promising aspects that portend improvements in the oil market. He continued that Iraq would continue to support the policy if all OPEC members agree, reaffirming that the country would not deviate from the group’s decision.

Iraq produced 4.3 million barrels per day in March thus far, and has cut exports by 187,000 barrels per day. The minister added that export cuts would reach 210,000 within a few days.

Compliance with the original agreement among OPEC and non-OPEC producers was 94% in February. Russia alone has committed to cuts of 300,000 barrels per day by April’s end.

Now, it is a matter of waiting for April to terminate to evaluate what the results will be.