Volkswagen Has Ruined Diesel For Everybody

on September 22, 2015 at 4:46 PM

Volkswagen TDIIf you haven’t been following “DieselGate” then you haven’t been following the end of an American fuel source. Diesel, clean or otherwise, is not coming back as a thing that is allowed to power our cars. Not in America, not in Europe, not after this. Volkswagen has killed it forever.

The scandal is pretty simple: last week the Environmental Protection Agency accused Volkswagen of cheating the emissions tests on their so-called “Clean Diesel” engines. The government alleges that VW software had a “defeat device” that let the engine know when it was being tested for emissions. Once engaged, the computer spit out emissions information that underplayed the amount of pollutants the car was giving off. From the New York Times:

The software was designed to conceal the cars’ emission of the pollutant nitrogen oxide, which contributes to the creation of ozone and smog. The pollutants are linked to a range of health problems, including asthma attacks, other respiratory diseases and premature death.

So, that’s a pretty big deal. The English language doesn’t really do justice to the problem, so here are some VW officials reacting to the news in the original German:

The Downfall meme is not an overreaction. The engine in question is the Type EA 189, which Volkswagen says are in 11 million cars.  They’ve set aside 6.5 billion Euros to pay for this mess, but the fines could reach well beyond that figure. And remember, the EPA is just the American regulator. Other countries, including, you know, Germany will be looking into this now. At best we’re looking at an error that will significantly damage the company and cost them billions of dollars. At worst, we’re talking worldwide criminal conspiracy to defraud energy regulators and consumers who thought they were buying cleaner cars than they were.

Volkswagen has lost a quarter of its stock price since the scandal broke. Clean diesel cars made up 20%-25% of VW’s U.S. sales. They are not allowed to sell any more of the 2015 clean diesels on the lot, and probably won’t be allowed to sell any of the 2016 already on their way. As Jalopnik put it “Volkswagen is Screwed.”

And most likely so is diesel. While other car companies have been pushing hybrid and electric options, Volkswagen has poured in a ton of ad dollars convincing the U.S. market that diesel could be a “clean” fuel. That ends now. Emissions standards, here and in Europe, are always getting tougher and diesel already has the reputation as a dirty fuel source. A scandal like this is a perfect “news hook” for a regulator or one of our billion presidential candidates to propose outlawing diesel altogether for road vehicles. Again, the people who said that the fuel could be made clean just got caught lying on the emissions test. I can’t think of anything worse to happen to the fuel in the court of public opinion. France is already trying to phase out diesel. I would expect other EU nations to follow suit after this.

You know who wins here? Prius. And Tesla. And everybody else who is selling environmentally friendly cars that aren’t programmed to lie about the environment.

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