China will overtake Germany as the world’s solar leader this year based on cumulative installed capacity, and the United States is likely to move up a spot to No. 4. But China and the U.S. are big countries, and when you take population into consideration, the solar leadership picture changes – a lot.
Here are the top 20 countries in cumulative megawatts of solar installed as of the end of 2014:
1. Germany | 38200 |
2. China | 28199 |
3. Japan | 23300 |
4. Italy | 18460 |
5. USA | 18280 |
6. France | 5660 |
7. Spain | 5358 |
8. UK | 5104 |
9. Australia | 4136 |
10. Belgium | 3074 |
11. India | 2936 |
12. Greece | 2595 |
13. Korea | 2384 |
14. Czech Republic | 2134 |
15. Canada | 1710 |
16. Thailand | 1299 |
17. Romania | 1219 |
18. Netherlands | 1123 |
19. Switzerland | 1076 |
20. Bulgaria | 1022 |
China installed a massive 5,040 MW in the first quarter of this year and is expected to end the year with total installed capacity around 45,000 MW. Germany, past its boom stage, is likely to edge up just a bit to around 40,000 MW. Japan should see robust growth to remain No. 3.
In the U.S., annual installations (not just the cumulative total, but the amount built each individual year) have increased every year since 2000, and are expected to do so again in 2015.
With another 8,100 MW anticipated for the U.S. this year, it will leapfrog stalled Italy into No. 4 position on the global solar list.
But take a look at what happens if we calculate the Top 20 taking into account population. Germany remains the big cheese, China disappears, a bunch of surprises pop up near the top – and the U.S. barely clings to a spot on the list. Here’s the list ranked according to watts installed per capita:
1. Germany | 471 |
2. Italy | 304 |
3. Belgium | 273 |
4. Greece | 240 |
5. Czech Republic | 202 |
6. Japan | 184 |
7. Australia | 173 |
8. Bulgaria | 142 |
9. Switzerland | 131 |
10. Spain | 115 |
11. Denmark | 106 |
12. Slovakia | 98 |
13. Austria | 89 |
14. Israel | 88 |
15. France | 86 |
16. UK | 79 |
17. Netherlands | 66 |
18. Romania | 61 |
19. USA | 57 |
20. Canada | 48 |
Per capita solar might not be the perfect representation of solar progress. It could be argued that relatively poorer countries like China and India are at a disadvantage in deploying newer technologies. Plus, their vast populations inevitably will skew any per capita analysis.
On the other hand, many poorer countries are growing at faster rates than richer, mature economies, and are facing rising energy demand. That actually could give these countries an advantage in adopting solar.
China, with its staggering population of 1.35 billion, checks in at just 21 watts/person, putting it 24th on the per capita solar list. Even after another big year of installations, it’s unlikely to crack the Top 20. Meanwhile, how about Belgium? Like Germany, Belgium used a generous feed-in tariff program – a guaranteed long-term price for any solar electricity put onto the grid – to drive installations in the years immediately following the 2008 economic crash. The FIT is now less generous, but new capacity continues to trickle onto the Belgian grid.
As for the U.S., its “real” performance as a solar adopter can only be called unimpressive. Seriously, less solar per capita than the United Kingdom? Than Romania?
But while the per capita global installations list highlights how unambitious the U.S. has been on solar, there is another, more hopeful way to view things: As the U.S. dawdled, Europe was investing heavily (those FITs, effective as they were, were very expensive), building a market for solar products and helping bring prices down dramatically. We all ought to send Europe a thank you card.
So now the U.S. in a position to take big advantage of those low prices. If it wants to.