With all eyes focused on falling oil prices for the past several months, the US natural gas market has often been overlooked. Not that it has done much from a price movement perspective in the past couple of years.

Another cold blast of Arctic weather is headed for the Midwest and Northeast over the next week – and while that is providing some near-term price support – the longer-term outlook remains bearish, according to brokerage Sterne Agee.

The analysts expect natural gas price pain to persist into 2016:

“Natural gas in storage should continue trending above historical averages into spring, amid record-high production from Appalachia. Supply growth is dampening Henry Hub prices and dislocating Appalachian spot pricing, which we expect to continue YTD weakness through this summer. Expect spot prices of <$1.50/mcf to be the norm in many Appalachian hubs this summer, and expect operators without takeaway solutions to consider shut-ins as local pricing struggles to exceed transportation costs to move gas to local pricing hubs.” – Sterne Agee research note, February 11, 2015