Tanker Carries Shipment Of Post War Oil From IraqWith the global oil market in a situation where futures contract prices are higher than prevailing prices – known by traders as contango – there is an incentive to purchase crude now and hold it until oil prices recover. Indeed, the world’s largest trading houses have been chartering tankers and shares of oil tanker companies have increased in recent weeks.

“The bid for storage is expected to come from almost all commodity products…” Rob Stier, Director of NGLs [natural gas liquids] and Chemicals for energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a statement.

Oil prices have fallen roughly 60% from over $100 per barrel last June to sub-$40/bbl currently. The last time crude oil prices plunged to a similar extent was in 2009 following the global financial crisis. During that cycle oil prices decreased from a high of over $140/bbl to about $35/bbl and traders cashed in by purchasing volumes at depressed rates and selling them into a higher price environment. By the end of 2009, oil prices rebounded above $70/bbl.

oil price chartCurrently, oil tankers with capacity to store up to 30 million barrels have reportedly been chartered by major traders like Vitol, Gunvor and Trifagura. During the 2008-2009 oil price cycle approximately 70 million barrels were parked in floating storage until prices strengthened.

Given this momentum, investors have been buying stock in oil tanker companies, with shares of Frontline Ltd – one of the world’s largest tanker firms – up over 100% the past 3 months.

But buying oil now and hoping prices rise over the short to medium term is not a license to print money, and as with any investment, significant risk remains. Bloomberg quoted a spokesperson for trading firm Mercuria as saying, “It would require only a 3 percent drop in the world’s oil production for this market to go away.”