As media reports explode about WTI crude oil futures prices closing below $60 per barrel today, there is no shortage of opinions about how far oil prices will go in the current bear market.

The last major oil price crash in 2009 saw WTI prices fall to $34/bbl, before recovering fairly quickly. This time the fundamental situation looks bearish with an oversupply of light oil and weak global demand to sop it up. The Saudis are content to let the market run its course and without a change to one or more of those dynamics – or a major supply disruption – how far prices fall this time is anyone’s guess.

“The path of least resistance is lower,”… “This week we’ve had the Saudis cut prices to Asia, OPEC reduced the call on its crude and al-Naimi reiterated that they aren’t cutting output and letting the market do its work. They all reinforce the bearish message.” – Mike Wittner, head of oil research at Societe Generale SA as reported by Bloomberg.