Today the US Energy Information Administration slashed its 2015 oil price forecasts, but the statistical arm of the DOE still expects total oil output to increase to volumes not seen since 1972. As we reported last week, it will take some time before current lower oil price levels manifest in lower US oil production volumes. And while most analysts have cut their average 2015 oil price forecasts, many see prices strengthening again toward the end of next year.

For example, Barclays expects quarterly average WTI prices of $58 per barrel in Q1, $61/bbl Q2, $68/bbl Q3 and $76/bbl in Q4.

For its part, the EIA forecast WTI to average $63/bbl next year and the “discount of WTI to Brent crude oil is forecast to widen slightly from current levels, averaging $5/bbl in 2015.

“U.S. oil production growth is expected to slow next year in response to lower crude prices, but annual output is forecast to still increase to the highest level since 1972.”

“Continued lower oil prices will make some drilling activity less profitable in both emerging and mature U.S. oil production areas. However, oil prices are expected to remain high enough in 2015 to support new drilling in the major shale areas in North Dakota and Texas, which account for most of the growth in U.S. oil production.” – EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski speaking about the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook