Last week, after legislators returned from an election where some campaigned heavily on energy-related issues like the Keystone XL Pipeline, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives again voted to send legislation approving that project to the President’s desk. Then, the outgoing Democratic Majority in the Senate also took action, though it failed to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster. The Senate vote was taken at the urging of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) in a last ditch effort to save her seat in the December 6 runoff election, but it won’t be the last vote on Keystone. Expect the new Republican majority to pass Keystone legislation early next year and send to President Obama for his signature or veto.
All this comes at a time when public support for the pipeline appears to be slipping according to one survey. In a recent Pew Research Poll, a majority (59 percent) still approve of building Keystone but the size of that majority has dropped seven points from Pew’s findings in early 2013.
The Pew study also found falling support for hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” – the process that uses water and chemicals to release oil and natural gas trapped between layers of shale deep below the earth’s surface. Between March of 2013 and November of 2014, those opposing the procedure rose substantially by a margin of nine percentage points.
Interestingly – and perhaps unsurprisingly – both of these findings come as oil prices continue to fall. According to EIA’s 2013 estimates, the U.S. burns about 18.5 million barrels of petroleum products daily. After reaching as high as $120 a barrel, the Wall Street Journal reported that oil prices have dropped below $75 a barrel for the first time in more than three years. Prices at the pump have already dropped below $3.00 with indications that their recent slide will continue, meaning that consumers are seeing a consistent, downward trend in gasoline prices for the first time in ages.
Over the past decade more advanced technologies have been widely deployed to increase domestic oil and gas production. In addition, we’ve witnessed an increase in alternative vehicle market share, major fuel economy improvements, and a sharp reduction in overall fuel consumption from consumers driving less. At the same time, persistently high gasoline prices combined with a sluggish economy appeared to focus more people on pocketbook issues instead of climate change and the environment. They were willing to support Keystone XL and hydraulic fracturing and the United States benefited from a glut of domestic production that made our nation a net petroleum product exporter of for the first time in decades.
This raises the question of whether we will soon see another evolution in public opinion on these matters; with lower energy prices, will we see a return by more consumers – and voters – to greater concern and a higher consciousness with environmental issues. Further, it makes us wonder if the Pew poll is an early sign of that reversion.
Right now, it’s probably too soon to say. It may be that declining prices at the pump have moved some voters towards a more environmental stance on these issues but it will likely take a substantial communications campaign to move more. Moreover, it will probably take a great change in underlying economic circumstances as many polls also show a lingering and strong feeling of anxiety about our economic future, especially for the younger generation. In any case, it’s an interesting issue well worth watching and how it plays out will have great repercussions on energy policy and technological advancement in the coming years.
Rick Kessler is a Senior Vice President at LEVICK, a communications and public affairs firm, where he runs the Government Affairs practice. From 2003-2006, Kessler served as Chief of Staff to former Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John D. Dingell (D-MI) and, prior to that, worked for Mr. Dingell as a Professional Staff Member on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce where he was the primary staffer to Democratic Committee members on issues including cogeneration, renewables, efficiency, hydro-power, oil, gas, and coal as well as energy-related research, remediation, and tax policy. He also served as primary staffer to Democratic Committee members on numerous issues related to the Pipeline Safety Act, the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act, the Federal Power Act, the Natural Gas Act, the Natural Gas Policy Act, the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, the Northwest Power Act, Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Act, the Energy Policy Act, and many others.
Michael Scrivner is a Senior Vice President at LEVICK and a member of LEVICK’s Government Affairs Practice. Scrivner spent fifteen years working as a top aide in Congress, serving the late Rep. John J. Duncan, Sr. (R-TN) and then the late Rep. Norman F. Lent (R-NY). With Rep. Lent, Scrivner served as legislative director for a senior member of the Committee on Energy and Commerce, advising him on energy, environmental, transportation, and commerce issues before becoming Rep. Lent’s Chief of Staff. When Rep. Lent became Ranking Republican of the full Committee on Energy and Commerce in 1986, Scrivner worked as his primary liaison and coordinator with the Committee staff, addressing a broad range of issues including major energy legislation, the Clean Air Act, Superfund, RCRA, legislation affecting the insurance and securities industries, telecommunications, health care, and transportation. Scrivner has provided strategic counsel and advocacy for major corporations, trade and professional associations, non-profits, and colleges and universities.
Andrew Ricci is the editor of LEVICK Energy.
