Predictable Energy Supply and Demand is a Treat We All Can Agree On

on November 05, 2014 at 10:00 AM

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Those in the energy business might want to steer clear of the news these days – and not because environmental problems and liberal opposition are continuing to cause their normal heartaches for the industry. From the New York Times to the Financial Times and every outlet in between, the headlines are dire.

“Falling Oil Price Raises Questions on the Viability of Shale,” one outlet proclaimed.

“Shale Boom Tested as Sub-$90 Oil Threatens U.S. Drillers,” shouted another.

“Drop in Oil Prices Might Have Downside for U.S. Economy,” blasted a third.

While the media predicts that the end is drawing nigh, the reality is that the apocalyptic headlines are demonstrating a loss of perspective as well as a denial of the basic concepts surrounding supply, demand, and balance.

Whatever your position on fossil fuels or fracking, the rise of technologies that allow the United States to extract these types of fuels has resulted in skyrocketing domestic production, and for states like Pennsylvania and North Dakota, the boom has been transformative. It’s also been disruptive, blurring the once-clear lines between “producer” and “consumer” states which historically have been used to define US energy policy.

Additionally, it has strengthened our domestic energy security, driving the U.S. toward a new role as a net exporter and putting us firmly on a course to energy self-sufficiency, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Consumers, however, have yet to see any benefit.

To wit, for all the oil we’ve pumped, produced, refined, and shipped, barely any benefit has found its way into the pockets of average Americans. Prices have stuck around $100 per barrel while prices at the pump steadily rose above the $3 per gallon floor. And as prices are driven downward and the floor starts to crack, consumers and the industry are poised to reap the benefits.

Just 15 years ago, crude oil was selling for roughly $16 per barrel, with prices at the pump in October 1999 at an average of $0.86 per gallon. Consumers at the time viewed this as a high price, significantly higher than January’s substantially-lower $0.56 per gallon.

There was plenty of cheap fuel to go around and the low prices led to great gains for our economy, creating a budget surplus and upward mobility for the middle class. The auto industry flourished as low fuel costs begat monster trucks and military vehicles like the Hummer as the ultimate suburban status symbol. Then, as oil prices started to rise, the Hummer began to sink under its own weight. And as prices at the pump increased further, demand for more fuel efficient vehicles and alternative fuels rose along with them.

Now, instead of a road cluttered with Hummers and SUVs, we have Priuses, hybrids, and alternative fuel vehicles roaming our suburban streets. Parking garages offer special charging stations for electric vehicles that don’t use gasoline at all. Those vehicles that do run exclusively on liquid fuels have seen major advancements in fuel economy and now get more mileage per gallon than ever before.

Production, too, is up but until now, prices at the pump haven’t budged. Fossil fuel opponents have capitalized, as average consumers have seen no benefit to the drastic increase in domestic production and thus, no reason to support it.

So while the apocalyptic headlines lack this important perspective, they are right that at long last, prices are falling.

Last week, on Halloween, AAA issued a news release that was an undeniable treat for consumers’ heretofore empty candy bag when it announced that the national average retail price for a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline dropped below the $3 per gallon threshold across the country, ending the longest sustained period of high gas prices in the history of the United States.

After 1,409 days, our long national energy nightmare is over and consumers are saving at least $250 million per day on gasoline purchases, compared to earlier this summer. And as the release notes, “lower gasoline prices will likely fuel consumer spending, boost retail sales, and even increase demand elasticity for gasoline, some energy analysts and economists predict.”

During this stretch, our consumption fell as a result of a powerful double team of market forces: the poor economy forced us to use less while the high prices forced our technology to become more fuel efficient.

And now that prices are falling, we are unlikely to see a slowing of fuel economy improvements and are certainly unlikely to see a regression like we saw in the late 1990s and 2000s. But we will see a rise in people doing things again. Where the economic downturn made us drive less, we will begin to see people driving more and doing more energy-intensive activities. This will drive economic activity and demand to continue increasing as prices drop further.

As we head into the holiday stretch, this means your travel plans for Thanksgiving and Christmas will be more inexpensive as less of your net income goes into the fuel pump, giving you more flexibility to take a trip or buy another Christmas present.

The cost of manufacturing and distributing those presents also decreases, allowing companies more production flexibility.

The energy industry gets presents too: with more people using energy again, they can increase their production and profit margins.

And we all win with a steady, reasonable price for crude and petroleum products. In fact, what many in the energy policy and media communities forget is that apart from national security and environmental stewardship, the best role for US energy policy is to smooth out the “boom-bust” cycle of price, supply and demand peaks and valleys.

This will give us a treat that everyone should want, steady, predictable energy demand and supply.

Rick Kessler is a Senior Vice President at LEVICK, a communications and public affairs firm, where he runs the Government Affairs practice. From 2003-2006, Kessler served as Chief of Staff to former Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John D. Dingell (D-MI) and, prior to that, worked for Mr. Dingell as a Professional Staff Member on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce where he was the primary staffer to Democratic Committee members on issues including cogeneration, renewables, efficiency, hydro-power, oil, gas, and coal as well as energy-related research, remediation, and tax policy. He also served as primary staffer to Democratic Committee members on numerous issues related to the Pipeline Safety Act, the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act, the Federal Power Act, the Natural Gas Act, the Natural Gas Policy Act, the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, the Northwest Power Act, Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Act, the Energy Policy Act, and many others. Kessler is a contributor to LEVICK Energy.