Bank of America Chairman Charles Holliday speaking on behalf of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate asked the audience at yesterday’s American Energy and Manufacturing Competitiveness Summit in Washington DC how many people anticipated the US shale gas production revolution 10 years ago. No one in the 500-plus crowd raised their hand.

US unconventional hydrocarbon development success caught just about everyone by surprise and now investors are looking for the next major energy industry step change.

“What’s the next shale gas?” It’s energy efficiency said Holliday.

As part of the commission that oversaw the New Climate Economy project – a wide-ranging study into how countries can reduce climate change risks while achieving “high-quality, resilient and inclusive economic growth” – Holliday highlighted the project’s findings with regard to energy efficiency market growth potential.

“Improvement in efficiency of energy end-use sectors such as buildings, industry and transport could alone account for an additional US$8.8 trillion of incremental investment according to the analysis presented here.” – Chapter 6 of the New Climate Economy project

There is clearly a large market for demand response and management services, as Google’s $3.2 billion Nest acquisition shows, and investors are now trying to figure out which technologies and companies will excel in this nascent market place. If the analysts and economists are correct and there proves to be anywhere close to $8.8 trillion of incremental energy efficiency-related investment on the horizon, then the smart utilities will spend less time fretting over their changing business models and start moving into that space.