Washington’s relationship with Riyadh has always been focused on mutually-beneficial policies, while politely ignoring considerable societal differences. There have certainly been periods of ideological conflict, but the House of Saud and the Obama Administration currently find themselves very far apart on several important issues.

And while leadership in Washington thus far appears relatively unconcerned – perhaps guided by faith in the strength of the weapons and oil bond – the Saudi’s “could make things very unpleasant for Washington,” says Simon Henderson, the Baker fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute.

US Secretary of State John Kerry is meeting with King Abdullah today in Saudi Arabia.

 

 

Henderson, who specializes in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf, recently wrote a piece summarizing the things that should keep State Department and Pentagon officials up at night:

1. Saudi Arabia uses the oil weapon. “The kingdom could cut back its production, which has been boosted to over 10 million barrels/day at Washington’s request, to make up for the fall in Iranian exports caused by sanctions. Riyadh enjoys the revenues generated by higher production, but price hikes caused by tightening supply could more than compensate the kingdom. Meanwhile, a drop in supply will cause the price at the gas pump to spike in the United States — endangering the economic recovery and having an almost immediate impact on domestic public opinion.”
2. Saudi Arabia reaches out to Pakistan for nuclear-tipped missiles. “Riyadh has long had an interest in Islamabad’s nuclear program: The kingdom allegedly partially funded Pakistan’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon. In 1999, then Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan was welcomed by Pakistani Premier Nawaz Sharif to the Kahuta plant, where Pakistan produces highly enriched uranium. After being overthrown by the military later the same year, Sharif is now back again as prime minister — after spending years in exile in Saudi Arabia.”
3. Riyadh helps kick the United States out of Bahrain. “When Bahrain was rocked by protests in 2011, Saudi Arabia led an intervention by Gulf states to reinforce the royal family’s grip on the throne. The Saudis have the leverage, therefore, to encourage Bahrain to force the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet to leave its headquarters in Manama, from which the United States projects power across the Persian Gulf.”
4. The kingdom supplies new and dangerous weaponry to the Syrian rebels. “The Saudis are already expanding their intervention against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, funneling money and arms to hardline Salafist groups across Syria. But they have so far heeded U.S. warnings not to supply the rebels with certain weapons — most notably portable surface-to-air missile systems, which could not only bring down Assad’s warplanes but also civilian airliners.”
5. The Saudis support a new intifada in the Palestinian territories. “Riyadh has long been vocal about its frustrations with the lack of progress on an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. Palestine was the top reason given in the official Saudi statement rejecting the UN Security Council seat. The issue is also close to Abdullah’s heart — in 2001, he declined an invitation to Washington due to lack of U.S. pressure on Israel. What’s more, Riyadh knows that playing the “Arab” card would be popular at home and across the region.”
6. Riyadh boosts the military-led regime in Egypt. “The House of Saud has already turned into one of Egypt’s primary patrons, pledging $5 billion in assistance immediately after the military toppled former President Mohamed Morsy. Such support has allowed Egypt’s new rulers to ignore Washington’s threats that it would cut off aid due to the government’s violent crackdown on protesters.”
7. Saudi Arabia presses for an “Islamic seat” on the UN Security Council. “The kingdom has long voiced its discontent for the way power is doled out in the world’s most important security body. The leaders of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, a bloc of 57 member states designed to represent Muslim issues in global affairs, has called for such an ‘Islamic seat.’”

Henderson believes the two sides are playing a political game of chicken, calling each other’s bluff on many of these policy decisions. “The big difference is that the tension in the relationship is the No. 1 priority in Saudi Arabia – but is way down near the bottom of the Obama administration’s list of concerns.”

The stakes are high and energy industry observers will closely watch Washington’s strategic relationship with Opec’s most powerful member unfold.