The Saudis are pumping oil near 32-year highs – north of 10 million barrels per day – and much short-term non-Opec supply growth is expected from Brazil where technically-challenging, deepwater, subsalt projects could experience delays, investment bank Simmons & Co. said in a recent note analyzing Oct’13 IEA Oil Market Report data.

“For the time being, supply losses in Libya, South Sudan and Nigeria have recovered, while the industry moves closer to the start-up of a substantial slate of non-OPEC major project start-ups scheduled for the next 6 quarters.  That said, geopolitical tension in the MENA region remains elevated creating the risk of future supply disruptions and non-OPEC major projects have a history of delays and disappointments, while effective OPEC spare capacity sits at only 2.9 mb/d and Saudi continues to produce near a 32 year high.” – Simmons & Co.