Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Arrivals

Christophe de Margerie (L) and Former Quatar Prime Minister Abdullah bin Khalifa bin Hamad bin Abdullah bin Jassim bin Muhammed Al Thani

Two of the oil industry’s more colorful chief executives – Total’s Christophe de Margerie and Eni’s Paolo Scaroni – provided some choice remarks on a range of energy-related topics yesterday at a Council on Foreign Relations event, The Future of Energy. They were joined by Michael Levi, director of the Council’s program on energy security and climate change.

Both CEOs gave their views on the trajectory of oil prices, prospects for European shale development and Arctic exploration, as well as strategies for visiting the restrooms at their companies’ service stations without detection. Here is a sampling, ranging from the insightful to the slightly absurd.

Oil Prices:

Scaroni:

“Oil prices are going down.I’m talking about Brent in the region of $90 [per barrel].”

de Margerie:

“By definition, it cannot go for long below $100/[bbl].”

“It’s what we need to make sufficient profit to provide sufficient energy for our buyers.”

Levi:

“There’s a real chance of it dipping considerably lower in the medium term, 3-5 years. Not on a sustained basis, because as Christophe says, in the long term you need high prices to sustain production, but things can get out of whack for a year or two in the meantime.”

Saudi and Opec Influence in Oil Markets:

Scaroni:

“They [Saudi Arabia] have more flexibility than anyone else. They have flexibility of around 4 MM barrels per day out of 90, more or less.”

de Margerie:

With the loss of Libyan and Iranian volumes, “if Saudi Arabia [had not] successfully and brilliantly increased production to an historical level…today the price would be $200.”

“The day there will be no more Opec, believe me or no, you will suffer. You will suffer from instability.”

Levi:

“They still have influence, but not as much as they used to. They’re able to move oil on or off up to a degree to stabilize the market.”

Shale Gas in Europe: 

Scaroni:

“I’m waiting to see what happens in the UK, which is the only one country that really is going forward on the shale gas. They are the most pragmatic of all the Europeans. Europeans love to discuss theory, Brits like to do practice.”

de Margerie:

“In US you have, for those getting the wells in their garden, they get the benefit of it…they have a share of the profit. In Europe, you don’t have that. So it really makes the shale much more sexy in the US than in France.”

“Do we have, first, reserves in Europe? Nobody knows. Because we didn’t drill.”

“Will it be more expensive than in the US? Yes.”

Shale Oil:

de Margerie:

“Shale oil is not a revolution worldwide, it’s a revolution in the US.”

Scaroni:

“Shale oil is going to be expensive, not cheap. If oil prices would go to $70, shale oil would be hardly competitive. It needs to have relatively high prices in order to exploit it.”

Does the US Need Keystone XL: (Scaroni refused to answer the question)

Levi:

“I don’t think we need this one particular pipeline,” but “I don’t think you should go after climate change by rejecting pipeline after pipeline after pipeline. I think it’s an ineffective way of curbing emissions, and it’s an expensive way of getting very limited results.”

de Margerie:

“Canada needs it.”

“There will be a time where Canada will feel frustrated about how they are treated by their former best ally who has got the benefit of their gas for so many years.”

“That’s part of the decision of a country, especially to know how to live with their neighbors”

“The impact on the environment is really nothing. But the impact on Canada is big.”

Going to Their Companies’ Branded Fueling Stations:

Scaroni:

“I disguise myself, and then I particularly look at the men’s room to be sure they are in proper conditions. I cannot go to the ladies’ room.”

de Margerie:

“I try to hide myself. I cannot. In France, wherever I go, I’m Big Moustache.”

Conditions in the Middle East and North Africa:

Scaroni:

Eni has not lost a single barrel of production in either Algeria or Egypt. “Libya is the big issue. Libya is coming from 42 years of dictatorship. And always remember that Mussolini was only 20.”

“Qaddafi destroyed all the institutions of Libya. So before the Libyans can build again the country from scratch it will take some time, and I’m expecting trouble to continue up and down.”

“I cannot believe that the Libyans, who are wise, will throw away the wealth that they have. They will find a way of exploiting their resources.”

de Margerie:

“It’s all now based on what we call ‘the superpowers’ want to do or not to do.”

“Unfortunately, what can Libya do at its own level? Almost nothing.”

Arctic Exploration:

Scaroni:

“We are investing a lot in the Arctic, particularly in the Barents Sea, both on the Norwegian and Russian side. We are investing billions in exploration over there.”

“it’s going to be relatively expensive oil and gas. There’s nothing cheap over there. But if you think that oil prices are going to be around $90-100, it’s still competitive.”

de Margerie:

“The first company which will have a leak of oil…a drop, is a dead company.”

“We are not against the Arctic as such. But we are against a certain part of the Arctic where it’s always in the ice. And especially then we will drill only for gas, not for oil.”

“Don’t say there is no risk.”

Drinking from Aquifers Located Directly Above Shale Drilling:

de Margerie:

“Perrier is the same, with bubbles, and the bubbles is gas. Without gas you don’t have Perrier.”