The world uses about 91 million barrels of oil per day. And most forecasts suggest that oil consumption will rise over the next few decades, driven in large part by growing demand for transportation fuels, especially in Asia.

Norway’s state-owned oil company, Statoil, predicts that oil demand will peak at around 105 million bbl/d in around 2030. But the development of China’s private transportation sector could move the oil demand needle by as much as 5 million bbl/d, according to Statoil’s chief economist, Eirik Wærness.

Wærness , speaking at an event hosted by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy on Monday, pointed out out that Singapore has about 100 vehicles per 1,000 people, compared to 350 in South Korea. This reflects a policy framework in Singapore that is specifically designed to make car ownership costly and difficult, he said.

“If they [China] choose Sinagpore, or they let markets develop so that it ends up at Korea or even higher in 2030-2035, the difference between those two figures – 100 or 350 per 1,000 – multiply that by 1.3 billion people, and you get close to 300 million cars in difference,” Wærness said.

Depending on how much people drive, and the level of penetration of electric and hybrid vehicles, “you get a difference in oil demand which could be somewhere between 2 and 5 million barrels per day”, Wærness said. “That’s a lot. And that’s just Chinese private transportation.”