The tight oil revolution in the Lower 48 United States has upended previous assumptions about the trajectory of the country’s oil production trends, with some forecasts now suggesting that the US could temporarily overtake Saudi Arabia in total production volume.

There is no shortage of skeptics about these optimistic forecasts, but US tight oil will remain a productive and relatively low-cost source of output for several years to come, said ConocoPhilips’ Chief Economist Marianne Kah at the USAEE/IAEE North American Conference in Anchorage, Alaska this week.

“This is not a flash in the pan,” said Kah.

“There’s very good data available, well-level data, where you can look at every well in all the tight oil plays and understand the cost structure of the reserves. You have a very good line of sight out to 2020. Beyond that, the cost structure can change, but I have to believe, even as we move away from the sweet spots, this is such a mature technology that we will get productivity improvements that keep the cost level fairly similar.”