US energy security is much stronger today than just 5 years ago, but taking full advantage of this opportunity requires strategic decision making on behalf of government and the private sector. North American natural resource development can strengthen the US and Canadian economies and provide bargaining chips when dealing with foreign governments, but not everyone agrees about the best way to capitalize on these opportunities.

US gross domestic product could grow by 2% to 3% annually from now to 2020, 2 to 3 million jobs could be created and the current account deficit could be whittled down if current oil and natural gas development trends continue, said Anthony Yuen, CitiGroup Global Energy Strategist at the recent Foreign Policy Association’s North American Energy Independence Conference held in New York.

However, a major risk to bearing out these lofty forecasts is a global commodity price decline, and there is some evidence this could occur. “Economic growth could slow and oil demand is flat in China right now,” said Yuen. Lower oil & gas prices would change these calculations. At the time of his comments, major US stock indexes were dropping multiple percentage points due largely to news of the US Federal Reserve pulling back its stimulus measures.

Regulatory uncertainty – like that surrounding Keystone XL pipeline approval – slows investment, said Peter Kruselnicki, TransCanada’s Public Sector Relations Vice President. And he linked energy-related economic growth with North American social spending, suggesting that without new revenue streams created by infrastructure projects and other development, there would be less funding available for social programs.

Environmental impacts can be limited by adhering to industry best practices, said Marc Lipschultz, Global Head of Energy and Infrastructure at investment firm KKR. “These are industrial activities and there will be failures, but they should be rare if we are doing our business right,” he said.

The panelists all agreed US and Canadian natural gas export projects should be given regulatory approval and there was little compelling economic rationale for preventing commodity exports. However, several gas-intensive industries oppose exports because they fear less domestic supply could increase their feedstock prices.

Lipschultz doesn’t buy that argument, comparing it to saying, “Let’s lower the price of bread by restricting wheat exports.”

North American unconventional oil production significantly increased over the past few years, which has backed out oil imports from other countries. This decreased reliance strengthens the US position when negotiating international issues, argued the panelists.

This natural resource endowment and export potential plays a significant role in Asian foreign policy matters, said Lipschultz. “We borrow a lot of money from the same people who now want our resources,” he said.