If the sky isn’t falling when it comes to energy availability, what does that mean for your portfolio?
After years of forecasts – part of a long tradition – that oil supplies were close to running out with the potential for immense supply shocks for the global economy, Wall Street analysts are beginning to build a new consensus around the potential for an unexpected and still-emerging demand-side shock.
“After years of indifference, U.S. consumers have radically reduced their consumption of petroleum and related products, moderating demand in the world’s largest market,” a report from Bank of New York Mellon’s Boston-based equity specialist notes, the group said in announcing the availability of the report “End of an Era: Death of Peak Oil.”
“Concurrently, heightened investments and technological breakthroughs, such as fracking, have spurred an explosion in resources, creating balanced supply and demand,” The Boston Company Asset Management said.
None of that will come as a surprise to energy industry insiders or even well-informed investors, who have seen the fracking boom and cutbacks in energy demand already impact their portfolios and attract widespread media attention over the years. Now advisors in the financial sector are beginning to try to tear apart the energy sector dynamics from the broader economic malaise that has weighed on demand as well as the political controversies over development while looking for opportunities in the new North American energy surplus reality.
“Areas of investment opportunity highlighted in the report include exploration companies, energy service companies, pipeline and transportation companies, companies that benefit from the low cost of gas and associated liquids, and companies that sell products to firms that directly are involved in natural gas and oil production,” the company said.
But it isn’t as simple for investors as just “buying into the energy sector,” as the report authors note. Natural gas companies’ bottom lines have actually been cannibalized by the glut of production in a lower-priced market, and while the opportunities generally are clear, specific and short-term market conditions are still choppy.
To download a full copy of the report in PDF form, click here.