One thing all commodity price forecasts have in common is they tend to be very poor at predicting what prices will be in the future, despite this being ostensibly their sole purpose. Many forecasts are based on past market activity, but this has not proven to be terribly effective at divining future price movements.

In this video from the US Association for Energy Economics conference recently held in Austin, Texas, Roger Stibolt, Managing Director at investment banking house Galway Group discusses some of the ways he approaches natural gas trading and price forecasting.